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Friday, April 29, 2016

Undecided Formula Philippine Election

This is not a scientifically derived formula.

Still undecided who to choice this coming election? If yes, this is a very basic formula to help you make up your mind. Just a warning, after using this formula, either you stick by your (unsure)1st choice or you change your mind and choose your 2nd option (unlikely but not impossible that you'll choose your 3rd best). Willing to try then?

Like most of the undecided voter out there, I would like that my 1st choice candidate to win, but without a chance of winning, I feel my vote will just go to waste.  Right? So, I decided to incorporate capacity to win criteria. If my 2nd choice (or 3rd choice) is within striking distance to win the top post, I might consider voting for my 2nd choice rather than my 1st choice who doesn't have a clear chance to win.

The candidates for May 9, 2016 Presidential Elections.

This formula is not for those who already made up their mind.  Stick to your candidate and respect other voter's choice. This is not for that die-hard butt hurt supporters of a particular candidate. This formula is for the undecided voter. 

Be mindful of who you choose as 1st choice as it will be harder to displace this candidate off from 1st place and relegate it to 2nd place.  The "Undecided Formula" is inclined to maintain your 1st choice unless  the chance of winning or "winnability" is really compromised. On the other hand, the fact that you place a candidate as your 3rd choice,  it shows your bias that this candidate is your bottom three (3). So the probability of your 3rd place ending up ask your "new"1st choice is unlikely unless this candidate is number one (1) in the survey and the other top two (2) candidates are in the bottom of the survey (or average of surveys).

Interested? If you find using this formula worth spending a couple of minutes , proceed and follow the steps. If not, and nothing will come out from this "Undecided Formula", quit while you can. This formula is not full proof and not without its pitfalls. It is not attempting to be fair to all or claiming to be scientific. It might help you, or it might not help you at all. My suggestion, don't base your decision on just one formula. Still interested?

Steps to Follow:

Step 1: Choose only 3 candidates out of the 5 and rank them based on Table 1.1 Your Best Choice. Tabulate the marks.

Step 2: Based on Table 1.2 Chance of Winning, assign marks of your 3 candidates based on their rank using the most reliable and/or recent survey.

Step 3: Total the score using the two criteria. Maximum mark is 100.  The one with the highest score should be your 1st choice.

Table 1.1 : Assign your three chosen (3) candidates 1st to 3rd choice.

Table 1.2: Use a reliable survey. Either latest survey or the average of past surveys.

Surprised by the result*? Or it is what you've been expecting? Are you sticking by your 1st choice? Or you are changing your decision?

Electing your 1st choice may or may not change the trajectory of our nation, well at least not soon enough, your future and your success is still dependent on you. 

At the end, it is still your own decision. Make your voice heard, by voting, on May 9 (or earlier if your an absentee/overseas voter).

So I say, just vote! And lets all do our part in nation building. 


*For tie, just flip a coin :)

Pre-election survey samples in the Philippines are too small (e.g. 4000 persons) when compared to 55 million plus voting public. Surveys should be taken with a grain of salt. Vote for who you think is the best overall for the country.

1 comment:

anna said...

Very useful information thanks for sharing with us